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-- Written by @STEVEYGIII, NBA Top Shot, NFL All Day, UFC Strike and Candy MLB collector--
We’re officially back underway in the NBA season, which means I have to start cranking out a few blogs here before I get fired from CnC (I don’t even really work here!) Hopefully, you’ve caught some of the podcasts throughout the offseason and the incredible work the team is doing there, but for those of you who like to read and long form, we’re back! Doing my best to not turn into Ben Simmons this year, I want to keep the blog going steady throughout the year like we had last year. I want to kick things off with 5 discussion points to get the dialogue going with some proverbial “hot takes.” If you write it, they will come…
No Wembymania Will Make Collecting Rookies More Interesting First off, this is not a talent comparison between last year’s crop of rookies and this years. Last year was an incredible crop of rookies and this year has some of the jury still out vibes. My point here is that without a clear 1-2 hyped up rookie like Chet and Wemby, people are going to explore out to more rookies and stack more rookies as we see who starts to break out. The price for the current rookie crop is fairly low as people are trying to figure out who the hot rookies will end up being and right now there are quite a few decent lottery tickets out there. We see it on NFL All Day as players have good games, their rookie debuts are getting bought up and floors are rising accordingly. Top Shot is going to have the same effect, but nightly which makes it even more exciting.
The “affordable” price point also leads to a lot more inclination for stacking for more users. Yes you could have stacked Wembanyama last year if you wanted, but stacking some of this year’s top prospects at $15-20 a pop versus $250-300 last year opens up stacking to a wider range of collectors. Now is the upside of this year’s class what it was last year? Absolutely not, but if you’re into stacking rookies, collecting sets or playing the leaderboard / trade in games; opportunity is on your doorstep. Speaking of leaderboards, I think the Freshman Gem boards speculation is really going to drive some speculative stacking until we start to see some clear potential stars break out. Right now is the perfect time to embrace the uncertainty and collect rookies how you want.
Flash Challenges Will Be More Fun Than Fast Break I said it. Don’t get me wrong, I enjoy Fast Break, but I am so ready for good old fashioned flash challenges to come back and get away from some of this predictive stuff that has run rampant in Dapper products the last 2 years. If I could predict all this stuff every night, I would just go fire up parlays and take cash to the bank. I miss the excitement of speculative buying for flash challenges, following the nightly leaderboards along throughout the night to see who is hitting and guess what at the end of the night if I want to make a bad trading decision and pump cash to complete a challenge, then I can do so. I don’t lose at the end of the night because the Cavaliers decide to sit their starters because they are blowing out the Hawks so I end up missing points by 1 and eat the L on Fast Break (I’m not bitter at all). This opinion is also pumped by the return of the MSFE set tied to the flash challenges, which as I am writing this was just tweeted about for the first one featuring the Tatum ring ceremony moment. I love the pairing of the new MSFE moments to the flash challenge like the old days. I would much rather make decisions for new moments versus these 6 reward packs that at times last year were not the best. I get that they are totally different dynamics and concepts, both with parts to play in the Top Shot ecosystem, but I am more inclined to open my Dapper wallet for a new moment being minted versus recycled reward packs. Great decision by the TS folks to bring back flash challenges.
People Stop Caring About any Non-Rookie Leaderboards This is not the hottest of takes here, but in reality I think the leaderboard concept for anything (team, player) non-rookie related is going to be extremely hard for new users or existing users to make a big push on. Can you do it? Absolutely yes. Is it worth it? Largely probably not. The challenge to climb up into the reward zone for users right now is very difficult (cough, favorite team locking needed, cough). The primary rewards being a team legendary that often becomes off to the wayside shortly after distribution and is far from the juice being worth the squeeze or on the player side the honors set that also becomes a forgotten set; despite how great of a set that was last year. Leaderboards and leaderboard rewards really could use a revamp. Make them exciting again or make a way to flex them more. Tie in game experiences, ticket packages or continue to use them as we started to see for the player experience / interviews we saw a bit of this offseason. There needs to be a balance between spend and favorite team users there though to make it worth it so people feel like it is something to chase and they have a shot at it. They recently revamped TSS to try to help flatten this out, but it is still very much an uphill battle to crack the Top 100 on a lot of these team leaderboards once you get past completing the full sets. The concept is great, but it should be tied to fandom of those teams’ actual fans. Let the player leaderboards largely be the wild west still, but team leaderboards are a great way to capitalize on enhancing fandom. Treat them as such and we people will come back to caring about them. Maybe it is a seasonal sub leaderboard component as well or some new wrinkle, while maintaining the existing leaderboards with benefit also. If not they are going to just be another link on the site to peak at once in awhile.
Game Recognize Game Returns and Propels Top Shot Yo it’s KD! Maybe one of the most iconic Top Shot quotes along with something about crying on your pillows I read on Twitter once (IYKYK). I think Top Shot NEEDS GRG back and views it as an opportunity to do something “cool.” Instead of 1 player this year though, I think we see a “players’ set” where multiple players or the players’ association gets involved (similar to the NBA Top50 legendary set the other year). Top Shot knows they need to connect with the players to drive being cool in the main NBA culture and what better way than the GRG set we have seen done before? The opportunity is here with the players seemingly becoming more interested in Top Shot at times, as well as what it could mean to the platform. If they are focused on new users they need to do more things that aren’t “available on YouTube.” GRG is a product differentiating set and I think Top Shot sees that here. With a focus on new users, a set curated by players of players definitely has a cool vibe. This set has immense viral potential if done right. With bringing on Badge County’s Samuel Dee, my hopes is they can find the way to maximize mileage with this one. Fingers crossed the pack drop goes smooth this time 😊 I will say of all 5 of these takes, this one may be #5 on the reality list, even after what you are about to read next…
We Finally Start to See Steady New User Growth Oh man I know people are going to flag this one and save it for the end of the season to try to stick it back to me, but I think this year is the year we see Top Shot really go for trying to penetrate into the NBA culture more and bring more users on. We saw it with the NBAID pack and commitment for the season to be more involved there. We see it with the revised TSS, which I think is a move designed to flatten the curve so to speak from the OGs to where new users can come on and try to think they can climb a mountain that is not unclimbable. We are seeing flash challenges back, which was one of the most popular components of TS when done right. We see Fast Break being left in a relatively stable state, so it becomes just a part of the overall Top Shot experience and not the only part of the Top Shot experience. There is also the elephant in the room that Top Shot’s NBA license is expiring in a few years. They need to show the NBA they are a viable long term partner, product and business. They need to convince their users to not try to abandon ship and sell out before the masses do if they fear the license is going away. Top Shot is realizing they have to grow this thing more into mainstream NBA culture or someone else is going to do it the minute they have the opportunity. Top Shot needs to go all in to break into being more of the NBA culture as they initially were when this was red hot. We are starting to see players tweeting about Top Shot like Myles Turner did last night. They need to get engrained in NBA culture and bring more users onto the platform. The common theme we are starting to see from the decision making is that is a primary focus this year. If they can run the business (at times) better, the product is incredibly strong and an immersive experience when done right. We’re not even talking about wen China yet!
Hit us up on the Twitter machine and kick off the dialogue. Until next time, watch more moments, tell more stories and we ride at dawn…
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